Privacy, Walled Gardens, Standards and Our Future

For those not following the tech sphere you are missing out on some very interesting times. Facebook is becoming, or has become, the biggest website property on the planet. It is also facing a lot of backlash about its privacy stance. Apple is at the top of its game releasing fantastic consumer products, and is also facing a fair amount of criticism from many angles plus significan't mobile OS competition. Web standards have replaced religion as the new most contentious topic to debate. I am loving every bit of it.

At the same time we see some very interesting technology trends. The smartphone world is blowing up. Apple dominates the chatter, but is under heavy fire from Android which is growing quite rapidly. Apps have become the hot new thing, however most never see profitability. The future of apps is in contention, with Apple betting the farm with a walled garden and app store focused on apps, and Google creating a whole new operating system that does away with apps entirely (everything is a website).

There are many questions regarding the future.

Will Facebook keep it together? They are seen by some as biting the hand that feeds them by scaring users with privacy missteps, and forcing game companies to use their new virtual currency. Many regard Facebook as an indestructible force, but remember, MySpace was in their position not all that long ago. Giants can and do fall.

Is Apple's strategy a good long term strategy? Apple protects it's customers, and its revenue. You can't buy any app unless through their app store. And Apple approves every app. This is normal course for phone companies. Until Google came along. Google has changed the model, and is rising rapidly. Will Apple's model survive? Will Apple's heavy handed approach to Gizmodo, Adobe and other vendors end up with long term consequences? Will apps pan out as what users really want? Remember the time you went to a software store to buy software? How many software programs do you buy now? How many have you replaced with websites (gmail, google docs, mint.com, etc). Is the focus on mobile apps a short term blip or simply a natural course of action for the medium? How does HP's purchase of Palm change things? What about Windows 7 Mobile?

Is HTML5 actually what people think it is? Will it be adopted by a majority of browsers (and consumers) any time soon? Can't we all just get along? HTML5 isn't ratified, and wont be for many years. Even the video tag, which would be so very useful, is in contention. FireFox and WebKit use different video codecs, and IE doesn't currently support it at all. And that is just one tag of HTML5. HTML5 support on mobile devises is much more robust. Most new mobile smartphones use webKit and so at least offer the same supported feature base. What about H.264 video? It isn't an open standard. People must license its use. But it has become the most popular codec for HTML5, and is used in Flash. Speaking of Flash... Much of what Flash can do, isn't doable in HTML5. At least not yet. But Apple doesn't want to support Flash, and others are calling for its head. So what are developers to think? Do consumers really care? When do we get to start arguing HTML6? Why doesn't anyone argue about Silverlight or JavaFX these days?

Interesting times indeed. While I may, at times, express frustration at some of this I am actually quite in love with it. Innovation is moving at such a rapid pace simply going on vacation puts us behind. Just wait until we get to the really interesting stuff. Facial and voice recognition becoming a part of gesture support in devices. Images appearing on any surface or in mid air. Biomonitors embeded into clothing or even mini tattoos. Chemical sensor inputs into mobile devises. Could we finally have a real tricorder?

What questions about the future do you have? What future technology gets you jazzed?